2008 has been welcomed with a new high on the NIFTY! The uptrend is continuing as expected and everything is going up!
I have been meeting a couple of market veterans and many of them have been confused by this sustained upmove. This is one of the longest uptrends Indian markets have seen and many people are finding it difficult to come to terms with it-especially the old timers!
On the other hand, the newbies are rejoicing. People are slowly getting gung ho about equity markets and those who earlier experimented with mutual funds are slowly turning to being active investors in the stock markets. And the markets have not disappointed them either. 100% gain in 1 -2 weeks is also not unusual! Even I had recommended some penny stocks to my clients and was surprised to see their sharp upmove.
As I had written last time, the scene is similar to Dec 1999 or May 2006.Technically, I am still to see signs of any crash but the beauty of crashes is that they surface from nowhere. And let me tell you many stocks fall as much as 70-80% during such corrections.
Infact, technically I am playing for 6600 on the NIFTY now but at the same time we are being extra cautious about the quality of stocks we add. This market can easily lure you into entering “cats and dogs”. The problems with stock markets is that the “moment” a retail investor starts to gain confidence, the markets behave in a manner to shatter that overconfidence.
And I am sensing that “overconfidence”. The other day I was talking to a guy-a guy who runs a restaurant but watches CNBC rather than MTV during market hours! He told me stories of stocks he bought at 60 paisa and now the stock is 4 bucks! He also told me how trading futures is a “zero loss” game because he never cuts his position and the stock always rebounds above his buying price!All I could do was offer a smile to him and nod at his ignorance
So all I can suggest is-do NOT drop your guard.In other words-assess your RISK constantly.
May this year bring a lot of wealth for all of you!
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