Home > NIFTY Strategy > Indian Markets- the road ahead

Indian Markets- the road ahead

Thursday, September 20, 2007 Leave a comment Go to comments

Yesterday was a phenomenal day for global financial markets. Equities hit a new high, Crude hit a new high and Gold also hit a level never seen since 1980s. Infact some of my clients have made more money on Gold and Crude rather than on stocks. The trend is up, up and up…

A NIFTY closing at 4732 was a surprise to many. I remember sending a note to my clients last week saying that I am seeing patterns which indicate a huge 6-7% move on either side (up or down) in US markets. Now they were advised to be cautious because the “direction” of the move was uncertain. I tiled more towards a bullish move after a decent closing on Friday on Dow. But I was still sceptical till Tuesday afternoon when the markets really perked up and closed at highest point of the day. Sometimes “price” is a good precursor of things to come.

What next? We’ve had a strong rally and now everybody is asking if this rally can take us past the 5000 levels. It all depends on the “left out investors”. As and when they “jump in” the rally might get over. Also I am sensing “some overconfidence” in the air which might again prove fatal. Profits make you feel like a “champion”! So lets keep our feet on the ground and not get carried away. Also this might be a good time to stay away from “media noises” and just be vigilant with our stock positions.

I am not going to take a guess and burden myself with “predicting the top”. All I am asking people is ride this upmove and be ready to give back 5-10% of their profits on reversals.I am not asking anyone to get completely in “cash”. On the NIFTY 4800-4900 is my first stop but even it get backs to 4600, I won’t be surprised.

And if you are a “long term investor”, you should not be bothering yourself with watching the markets everyday. The volatility might increase your blood pressure!

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Categories: NIFTY Strategy
  1. Murtaza
    Friday, September 21, 2007 at 12:45 pm

    Reliance scrips have moved in such frenzy and that too all togerther …. RNRL from 43 to 69 … , REL from 600 to 1000; RIL from 1600 to 2200; RPL from 110 to 150; RIIL from 600 to 1000; RELCAP from god knwos where to 1500 …;

    On a lighter note : Stock markets have seen a scam almost every 4-5 years. Its been time since the last one – 2003 KP Scam, are we looking at an AA rated scam in the near future … 🙂

  2. seriouspranav
    Friday, September 21, 2007 at 12:26 am

    IDBI has good fundamentals too! It is expected to touch 170 in medium term and provided some things happen, it will also touch 200(medium term).
    It is planning to sell its stake in some company(forgot name). Also it has holdings in IFCI which is plannibg to sell its stake in another company(which will be another short boost for IDBI).

    RPL will do certainly well! The short term target would be, I believe 150. Thats just what I feel, it may go higher and may not touch that value. If crude oil price increases further, expect another spurt here.

    As for RIIL, even i am confused as to its sudden rise in price! But I felt it was undervalued earlier.

  3. Raj
    Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 11:31 pm

    I don’t know about hart. I’ve joined this website just 4-5 days back. Actually I used to invest thru mutual funds. Now I’ve entered in the game directly.
    I do a lot of homework in selecting stocks. But I always welcome suggestions then I do the dissection of stock suggested.
    Any fresh stock idea for large/mid cap for 6-12 mth investment horizon.

  4. sagecapital
    Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 12:25 pm

    Raj-you should ask “hart”. He seems to be a “fundamental” guy.
    I do not care about balance sheets.All I have done is traded the stock for couple of my clients 🙂

  5. RPS
    Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 11:43 am

    IDBI and RPL looks good for medium term.
    Any comment for these momentum stocks

  6. RPS
    Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 11:41 am

    YES IF RIIL is going up its not a surprise its valuations were cheap when it was trading @500 At that time i bought. Ambanis are always great.

    Do you have some more ideas

  7. Raj
    Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 10:51 am

    I wonder why reliance indust. infrastructure is running so fast. Actually I couldn’t find any such thing in balance sheet. Can anyone explain?

  8. hart
    Thursday, September 20, 2007 at 10:32 am

    Are you guys keeping an eye over another one Ambani rocket launching itself phenomenally … here’s past 4 session sequence

    Friday – 19% rise
    Mon- 20% rise
    Tues-10% rise
    Wed. (today)- 10% so far … overall 92% rise …

    so which stock I’m talking about? I don’t talk over individual stocks, but mentioned it’s name in my previous couple of messages … keep minting money folks!

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