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Back after hibernation..

Monday, April 21, 2008 Leave a comment Go to comments

I was not able to post during the last few days due to some personal reasons. Now I am back again with my observations.

Fortunately markets didn’t do much during the last month by sticking to the 4500-5000 range. The recent up moves have been encouraging but I’d still wait a bit before taking a trend reversal call. I think we’d know by the end of this week that the current move is part of bear market correction or is it the continuation of a bull rally. Watch for 5050 levels.

Talking of sectors-I’d pick two – Pharma and Oil. Check out stocks like Ranbaxy, Sun pharma which are in the beginning of a long term upmove. In oil sector watch out for Cairn Energy or RPL. The above stocks look very positive. With Oil in a sustained uptrend at $117, it is not surprising to see oil and gas stocks on fire!

IT stocks are also beginning to look interesting and many stocks have generated short term buys.

If you have observed the market behaviour for past few months, you’d have observed the “power of trends”.

Most of the money is made riding these trends rather than picking tops and bottoms. “Buy and hold” just increases the risk and results in massive drawdowns. Many stocks have suffered a 60-70% correction in this downtrend (even so called fundamentally good stocks!) and might never recover again. So use the bounces to get out of them.

So lets wait for an uptrend to appear.And this time do not make the mistake of crossing your “risk limits”.

Categories: NIFTY Strategy
  1. sagecapital
    Thursday, April 24, 2008 at 9:27 am

    JK- May be I missed your email! My apologies for that.

    Rahul- I use couple of long term systems on which many pharma stocks like Sun Pharma,Ranbaxy,Glenmark etc have given recent buys.
    Usually such moves gives 30% to 300% in medium term.Stop losses range from 10-15%.
    Of course-every stock movement is correlated to overall market trend. Thats a big issue with “stock diversification” in a single market.It actually doesn’t offer true diversification.
    Thats why we use “diverse systems” (long term,short term,trend,countertrend) to achieve diversification.

  2. jk
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 8:54 pm

    sage i snd u an email u didnt reply?

  3. Rahul
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 7:16 pm


    Since you are telling that Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma are in the beginning of a long term upmove is it safe to buy them now? Or are they dependant on market movement?

  4. sagecapital
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 3:49 pm

    Ashish- You can buy JP hydro keeping a stop at 60. About 80 is the first target. But keep an eye on overall market. You should exit your positions on any hints of reversal around 5000-5050 levels on the market.

  5. Hozefa NC
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    Dear sir

    Thank you for your valuable comments

    I appreciate.

    Best Regards;

  6. ashish ji
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 1:22 pm


  7. ashish ji
    Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 1:21 pm



  8. sagecapital
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 9:26 pm

    Hozefa,thats a long list 🙂
    Alok and Fortis have been range bound for ages. Still no sign of revival.

    Ranbaxy looks the best of the lot.
    Skumars is way too volatile for my liking. Might be a good candidate for intraday play.Needs to cross 125-130 to pick up real steam.
    Mudra looks set for reversal.I’d add the stock above 50 for short term target of 65-70

  9. sagecapital
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 9:09 pm

    Soymya- Pharmas might have just begun! And how long will oil move up is anybody’s guess!

  10. Hozefa NC
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 5:38 pm

    Dear sage

    One more question sir;

    What about textile stocks

    Alok @72
    Mudra lifestyle @75
    Skumars @88

    Please give your input on these as well. for hold or sell

    Best Regards;

  11. Hozefa NC
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 5:37 pm

    Dear sage;

    Welcome back sir, waiting for your valuable suggestions.

    Please give your views on

    Ranbaxy @385
    Fortis @85
    Vakrangee @200

    Please let me know , should i hold / sell them. Prices mentioned are buy prices.

  12. Somya
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 3:26 pm


    Its easy to say that you have been long on Pharma/ oil after the events are over 🙂 BTW buting put is another way of making money.


  13. sagecapital
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    Soumya- I can’t give you “long”/Buy ideas when markets are going down especially when short selling was not allowed. I am not a “buy and hold” guy!
    Infact after 5700-5800 levels were broken on NIFTY, I never got a single buy on my systems.

    We have been buying pharma and oil as they are trending up nicely. IT is also looking interesting but still need some more strength to sustain the uptrend.
    Real Estate,Banks,financials,construction,capital goods etc are still in a downtrend-So we are either shorting them on rise or just avoiding them.
    Some midcaps are showing some signs of recovery an we are closely watching the space.

  14. Somya
    Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    Hi Sage

    Nice To see you back but you too eluded like few operator who used to buy calls in bull run and are no where in the market.

    Really nice to see you back… please help us in making money

    take care


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