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Archive for the ‘Trading Ideas’ Category

How are you playing NIFTY rally?

Wednesday, September 16, 2009 3 comments

Yesterday was a great day as two of the stocks I had recommended for my subscribers in the last couple of weeks, were among the top gainers in the markets.The markets are picking up nice momentum and it looks like traders are back in the markets to drive prices. We are taking many tactical positions to take advantage of this momentum.

If you are in the right stock at the right time, you can extract a lot of juice from this rally. If you are in wrong stocks, then your portfolio might underperform in a big way.

The biggest issue for old investors is psychological . Having seen their “buy and hold” portfolios drop 80%+ during the 2008 crash, many are still not finding the courage to jump again. So these investors are likely to miss this rally. Also, there is a high possibility that many of their stocks might never recover. In 2007 they paid for greed and now they will pay for fear.

Coming to the new investors who invested in the last couple of months, they have to watch for their greed. Otherwise, they will surrender their gains when this rally ends.

So have a clear vision and strategy in place before you execute any trades. This market will try to confuse you many times. Trade like a Chameleon!

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Trading Strategy-RNRL

Sunday, August 16, 2009 Leave a comment

RNRL is a trader’s favourite as it gives significant moves in either direction for the traders. Currently the stock is in a tight range of 75-85 with a slightly bearish bias. So traders could short the stock on a rise close to 85-86, keeping a stop at 87-88. On the downside, targets could be 80 and 75. Countertrend traders might buy the stock again at 75 to trade the range.

Short term Momentum traders can go long if the stock closes above 86. The short term targets could be around 95.

Medium term swing traders can trade the stock if it picks up steam after crossing 95-100 barrier.The targets can be 115-125.

The stock might react to news on the current dispute between RIL and RNRL.

The intention of  this post is to show different ways of trading the same stock based on your trading/investment style. So plan your trade before you make buy or sell.

Also check out how the stock had moved in last bull market.

Would you invest in JP Morgan Greater China Fund ?

Tuesday, July 21, 2009 Leave a comment

One wonders as to how these asset management companies keep on coming with new ideas. Latest on the block is Greater China Fund by JP Morgan. Looks like they have run out of ideas on Indian equities, so they are turning eastwards. To me this is just naother ploy to attract investor money before July 31.

For those who don’t know, MF entry load is banned after July 31. This means that distributors won’t have any incentives to sell MFs. This might be good for MF advisory business and people might be willing to pay for good professional advice. At the same time this is bad for MFs who won’t be able to sell every crap they launch in the market.So they seem to be in a hurry to raise as much as they can before the deadline.

Also what happenned to these funds in 2008? Same old wine in a new bottle. Most of these funds actually don’t offer any diverisification. Have a look at the 2008 performance of JP Morgan funds in 2008:

JP Morgan India Equity-G :  -55.39% (vs 51.79% for NIFTY

JP Morgan India Smaller Companies-G: -65.95%

I know they might sell this fund on the “diversification” theme but one has to ask if an investor really gets any diversification advantage by investing in international equities. To me most of the global equity returns are correlated. So one needs to look further in order to diversify.

Categories: Trading Ideas

Mukesh Ambani's Goldmine

Tuesday, July 21, 2009 Leave a comment

Came across this interesting story about Mukesh Ambani and RTGIL. I wonder if this is equivalent of being unfair to RIL shareholders.At the same time, this man will surely retire as the most wealthy person on this planet.

Categories: Trading Ideas Tags: ,

Mukesh Ambani’s Goldmine

Tuesday, July 21, 2009 Leave a comment

Came across this interesting story about Mukesh Ambani and RTGIL. I wonder if this is equivalent of being unfair to RIL shareholders.At the same time, this man will surely retire as the most wealthy person on this planet.

Categories: Trading Ideas Tags: ,

Should one re-enter Sensex or exit?

Monday, July 20, 2009 2 comments

This rally has taken us from about 2500 to 4500 on NIFTY in last 4 months which is a gain of about 80%. Looks very tempting but it would have been nearly impossible to pick the  bottom.

At the same time, one could have entered at 3300+ levels to ride this move. That’s all in the past.

What to do now?

If I were an agreesive trader, I’d jump in as this move can give another 10% without creating much noise. The downside stop could be as low as 3-5%. So there is  great risk reward.

Stock specific- SBI, Reliance are looking great. Even the cement pack is looking great.

This market has the potential to rocket again. But not for the faint hearted!

Markets reward you for taking controlled risks.

Those who are already in should ride it till the markets reverse.

Ride the wave and hope that this becomes big wave. If it doesn’t , get out..

Categories: NIFTY Strategy, Trading Ideas Tags:

Will IT stocks be our saviours?

Wednesday, May 7, 2008 1 comment

IT stocks which have been in a downtrend for quite a while now seem to be getting into an uptrend. With rupee hitting new lows against the dollar, things are not looking that bad for the sector.

This might be the beginning of a new uptrend in the sector.

Infosys and Wipro looks a lot better to make an upmove.

Categories: Trading Ideas