Are you catching the big winners?

Thursday, December 3, 2009 7 comments

This market is all about catching the big movers. If you are riding the current moves in auto and pharma ( say a Ranbaxy or a Tata Motors), you’d understand what I am talking about.

Many investors are missing out on these big moves because they are quick to realize their profits.

Many failed to enter as they were waiting for a big correction!

Those who are  riding this upmove might also end up riding the downmove as they have no idea about their exits!

And many others will leverage so much that one sharp correction will throw them out of this market!

Do you belong any of the above categories?

Categories: Education

Gold hits $1200!

Wednesday, December 2, 2009 1 comment

For those who invested in Gold at the right time are enjoying the current ride. Gold is now trading close to $1200 with Gold touching  18450 today! As you know, I have been bullish on gold for last few months and continue to ride the uptrend in this asset.  I know investors get biased towards equities but one should definitely consider alternative assets like commodities in order to diversify.You might be really surprised on the upside in this asset.Read this.

Categories: 1355216, Macro Trends

Where are markets headed post correction ?

Sunday, November 29, 2009 1 comment

Friday turned out to be a nasty day for the markets after global credit problems resurfaced in Dubai. In this world of global finance, such problems can easily cause havoc.What seemed irrational was the fact that all the companies that are doing business in Dubai or Middle East were punished on the stock markets. This is what’s known as fear! Is it correct to assume that all companies that have receivables from Dubai will see defaults?

So is there any way to guard against such events? It is very difficult as one cannot monitor economies of so many countries! The only way to operate in such environment is to have proper risk management strategy. Otherwise, you will never know when death strikes!

If we didn’t have this event, things were looking bright for the bulls and they were on their way to take the markets to 5400-5500. Now things look a little muddled in the short term. It will be interesting to see if the bulls renew the buying or just step away from the markets.

My sense is that bulls would still like to play for the 5400-5500 levels on the NIFTY by Dec- Jan .They need to take the NIFTY back above the 5000 levels so that momentum buying emerges again.

Categories: Market View

Stock Watch – Jagran Prakashan

Wednesday, November 25, 2009 Leave a comment

Jagran Prakshan which I had recommended 1-2 weeks back around 105 levels is also steadily climbing the charts. Keep an eye on this stock.

Sector Watch – Auto Pack, BEL

Wednesday, November 25, 2009 Leave a comment

Auto pack is again picking up momentum and my picks in the sector are Maruti, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland and Hero Honda. Infact, I had recommended the same to my subscribers about 1 week back (for swing trading) as one could see the big moves coming.

Even if you see in the slightly longer term a stock like Tata motors has been a clear outperformer. Back in July I had targets of 600 in mind and now it seems 750 is also possible in this rally.

Similarly, Ashok Leyland has been a great performer in our portfolios. The stock was picked at 34-35 levels back in July and already the stock has delivered 50%+ returns as compared to the index which has virtually not gone up more than 10% in this period!

There are many stocks and sectors that will give such outperformance in the coming months. The trick is to be in the right stocks at the right time, so that you can ride the big waves. You do not have to indulge in short term trading to make your money.

On a sidenote,  Bharat Electronics which I had talked about last week has suddenly shot up by 5-6%. Keep an eye on this beauty.

There is no need to run after a Bharti or a Suzlon or a Unitech.  Compare their performance with that of the stocks I mentioned above. There might be a temptation to bottom fish in these stocks but I’d advise every smart investor to exit on rise and every smart trader to short them on rise.

Definitely, there will be some sweet pickings in the telecom sector if you are a value player.The best time to pick such stocks is on the day when they announce “earning shocks”. That’s when you can buy the fear and make money!

So play this momentum while managing your risks. it is important to be aware of the fact that  this market won’t look like a bull market for all the stocks. That happens only at the end of a bull market phase. This might just be the beginning!

Who knows if we are entering again into a 2003-2007 kind of bull market again?

Categories: Market View

Stock Watch – GAIL, Hindustan Zinc, Bharti

Monday, November 23, 2009 Leave a comment

Keep an eye on two stocks I had mentioned last week- Hindustan Zinc and GAIL. Both these stocks jumped up today with Hindustan Zinc jumping by almost 10%!

On the other hand, a telecom stocks like Bharti and RCOM are still slipping and I’d advise to stay away from the sector.

Categories: Market View, Stock Ideas

Market Outlook

Sunday, November 22, 2009 Leave a comment

As indicated last week, this market is still looking very bullish in the short term. Although it might be difficult to find value in the large caps, one can definitely find some value in the midcap and small cap space. at the same time, one needs to be mindful of the fact that FII liquidity can further drive large cap prices. So large caps might be the best place to ride the short term momentum.

I still don’t find a bubble like situation in the market as many stocks in the small and midcap space are still languishing since June -July. As a matter of fact many stocks have gone down since July. This is unlike 2007 when each and every stock was moving up in a vertically! This makes the journey from 5000 to 6000 very different from the last time.

There is still a scope to find potential multibaggers primarily in the small cap area where stocks are still below the 500 crore market cap with PEs well below 10. So keep your eyes open and do ample research before you pick stocks in this area. It is very easy to land up with junk!

The first hurdle that needs to be crossed is the level of 5200 on NIFTY which can then propel the index towards 5400-5600 range. On the downside 4900 shall be the level to watch.

As far sectors go, I will still ride the old favourites in auto like Maruti and Tata Motors. In IT, the troika of Infy,TCS and Wipro show no signs of stopping while in Pharma Dr. Reddy and Ranbaxy still rule!

RIL might add some spark to the markets with its offer to buy Dutch  petrochem firm LyondellBasell. Read the story.

One doesn’t need to be a short term trader to make money in these markets.