Posts Tagged ‘NIFTY trend’

NIFTY set to cross 5000

Thursday, September 17, 2009 2 comments

With global equity markets picking momentum again, NIFTY is set to cross 5000 today. When this upmove started, 5100+ was the level I had in mind( had shared this with my subscribers).  Going beyond this level is not impossible and my sense is that we might stay above this level in the coming weeks and months.

Coming back to stocks, a switch to large caps has proved fruitful. We made spectacular gains in the likes of Tata Steel and SBI. Also metal stocks like Hindalco and Sterlite have done well. And do not forget about auto stocks (Hero Honda, Tata Motors,Maruti and Ashok Leyland)! Did you notice how Infosys is leading from the front? In 2007, we had avoided Infosys and in this bull run we are riding it right from the beginning!

This is a particular characteristic of stock trading- when you are winning, you get a lot of winners. This is what is happenning right now. Also when moves begin to go bad, you can also get a string of losers. That’s why it is important to have proper risk management in place to control the leverage and survive the unfavourable times.

If this bull run resumes, one has to make the tactical move of rebalancing the portfolios. My sense is that this is not a bull market where every stock will move. So pick your winners carefully. You don’t want to be caught in the wrong stock at the right time. Also you don’t want to be in the right stock at the wrong time.

If this is the beginning of another multi year bull rally, then you have to position yourself right now. Also, avoid the temptation to do intraday trading. Catch the big moves!


Bulls feel jittery

Tuesday, September 1, 2009 Leave a comment

As expected, the bears attacked the bulls while they were enjoying their wins. Caught them by surprise! The correction might continue but the bulls might try to defend 4500 level.

That is the reason why it is important to evaluate your risk on a constant basis. This is more important for leveraged players as one bad move can spoil the whole party!

If you don’t know your entries, exits and risks, such moves can cause great confusion and damage your confidence to trade successfully. This is not a one way market and will question your beliefs at every step. For investors, this is not the question of being right all the time but knowing when you are wrong. As they say- investing is the business of making least number of mistakes. Those who make more mistakes are knocked out of this game.

A lot of investors will undergo this confusion in the coming days. Are you prepared?

NIFTY Outlook

Tuesday, July 28, 2009 1 comment

Markets have been consolidating nicely around the 4550 levels. This is a healthy sign for the long term uptrend of the market. Another thing that now needs to happen is some correction. This will shake out the weak hands and stronger players might buy on dips. Serious troubles might emerge only if the markets correct sharply below 4350. Otherwise, this is a “buy on dips” market. On the upside, 4700 needs to be crossed before next phase of buying kicks in and momentum picks up again.

I’d be little cautious on the stocks that have run up too sharply in the past week or so. It is again the case of “too much money too soon” kind of situation.

Markets surge again

Tuesday, October 9, 2007 2 comments

How wrong I was in saying that 5250 is an intermediate top! Now how does one explain the sudden upmove of today? I personally can not explain it. Infact, I cannot explain any of the moves 🙂

The volatility is not to my liking for positional trading. The risks are way too high.Only thing to do might be to ride the long term positions.

Looks the liquidity flow is way too strong. You do not see a 7.5% move in Reliance in a single day! Does this mean that someday we might have to put circuit breakers even on stocks like RIL?

Do not look for “explanations” for these moves. Lets just focus on riding the moves and managing our risks.

I am seeing a move by Indian markets towards imitating Shanghai markets. Trade at 30+ PEs with lots of volatility! Money flow can do strange things and trends are created as a result of these “money flows”.

5400-5500 looks again in sight. Much of it might be aided by short covering as many players might have gone short yesterday. Remember this is a high risk high reward game. I won’t be surprised to see even huge reversals. So enter at your own peril!

The trend continues- Crude up, dollar down, stocks up

Friday, September 28, 2007 6 comments

The world markets are witnessing strong trends. Dollar is a downward trend against major currencies and the fall has been accelerated as the expectation of another Fed cut is being expected in January. The crude is touching $83+ and is trending up nicely.

4900 on the NIFTY came and gone. 5000 has been reached easily. Now we are gearing ourselves for the “final push” in the next week. As I had said before, this market might continue to trend up without significant corrections. All we got in the name of correction was a small intraday dip on Wednesday.

Now is the time to turn a little cautious in the short term. The correction can come anytime now. It is difficult to say if the correction shall be sharp or not. Also, traders might dump the stocks just before the result season begins. I am playing for 5200+ on NIFTY . If markets give us more profits, I shall gladly take them and if it chooses to reverse, I shall be out.

Capital good stocks and Reliance stocks might lead the next leg of this rally.Commodity stocks(oil, steel,cement etc.) are also looking very strong. Even IT sector is showing some revival. I am suggesting people to get out of Infosys in the 2000-2050 range. Re enter after this level is crossed.