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Gold hits $1200!

Wednesday, December 2, 2009 1 comment

For those who invested in Gold at the right time are enjoying the current ride. Gold is now trading close to $1200 with Gold touching  18450 today! As you know, I have been bullish on gold for last few months and continue to ride the uptrend in this asset.  I know investors get biased towards equities but one should definitely consider alternative assets like commodities in order to diversify.You might be really surprised on the upside in this asset.Read this.

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Categories: 1355216, Macro Trends

Bull market in Gold

Tuesday, October 6, 2009 2 comments

Categories: Macro Trends

Is gold the next best investment?

Thursday, September 3, 2009 7 comments

For those who have been reading this blog for sometime now, I have been recommending to buy Gold from a slightly longer term perspective. Finally gold is beginning to move up and is nearing $1000/ounce. This might be just beginning of big bull run in gold. Allocate some part of your portfolio to this precious commodity. One good option is to buy Gold ETF on the stock market.

Categories: Macro Trends, Market View Tags:

Cheer up- Global Recession Over

Wednesday, August 19, 2009 Leave a comment

IMF has just announced that global recession is over. At the same time , it has warned that developed world economies might never grow at their old growth rates, also referred to the “new normal” by the PIMCO guys. This has huge implications for the world economies.

US will consume less and export more. As a result, export driven sectors might be affected ( not IT services). Countries like India and China might continue to drive global growth as domestic consumptions in these countries will continue to rise. In fact recenty the economist magazine had the following projections:

GDP growth: China, India are way ahead

This is also good for Indian stocks when it comes to liquidity. The FIIs and global pension funds might pump in more money into countries like India in search of better returns. Which further implies that Indian stocks might again command premium valuations.

Lets wait and watch how the “new world” economy looks like and how our markets behaves in the medium term.

Categories: Macro Trends, Market View

Drought effect on India's GDP

Saturday, August 15, 2009 Leave a comment

It is interesting to note that most of the research houses have upped India’s GDP growth target despite a severe drought. Here is a good analysis of the impact of drought on India’s GDP. Here are some key points.

A quick number crunching by Indicus Analytics for ET on the 167-odd drought declared districts spread across seven states reveal that if you add all income from agriculture across these districts, it amounts to less than 3% of the country’s GDP, down from 4% in early 2000s.

Morgan Stanley India & South Asia economist Chetan Ahya recently upped his India GDP outlook to 6.4% from earlier estimate of 6.2% even as he nudged down agriculture growth from 3% to 1.5% for 2009. Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s too revised India growth to 6.3% on Thursday from an earlier forecast of 6%, with a rider that it will revisit the forecast in about three weeks time when the monsoon picture becomes clear.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs analysts Pranjul Bhandari and Tushar Poddar writing in a Wednesday ‘Asia Economic Data Flash’ also concur that the recent upside in industrial activity—India’s industrial production up by a robust 7.8% in June—is likely to provide the economy with the buoy to float high despite poor rains. Goldman has maintained its 5.8% GDP figure for 2009, while it has raised its estimate for FY11 to 7.8%, up 1.2% from its last reading.

Categories: Macro Trends, Market View

Drought effect on India’s GDP

Saturday, August 15, 2009 Leave a comment

It is interesting to note that most of the research houses have upped India’s GDP growth target despite a severe drought. Here is a good analysis of the impact of drought on India’s GDP. Here are some key points.

A quick number crunching by Indicus Analytics for ET on the 167-odd drought declared districts spread across seven states reveal that if you add all income from agriculture across these districts, it amounts to less than 3% of the country’s GDP, down from 4% in early 2000s.

Morgan Stanley India & South Asia economist Chetan Ahya recently upped his India GDP outlook to 6.4% from earlier estimate of 6.2% even as he nudged down agriculture growth from 3% to 1.5% for 2009. Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s too revised India growth to 6.3% on Thursday from an earlier forecast of 6%, with a rider that it will revisit the forecast in about three weeks time when the monsoon picture becomes clear.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs analysts Pranjul Bhandari and Tushar Poddar writing in a Wednesday ‘Asia Economic Data Flash’ also concur that the recent upside in industrial activity—India’s industrial production up by a robust 7.8% in June—is likely to provide the economy with the buoy to float high despite poor rains. Goldman has maintained its 5.8% GDP figure for 2009, while it has raised its estimate for FY11 to 7.8%, up 1.2% from its last reading.

Categories: Macro Trends, Market View

RBI on inflationary vigil

Friday, July 31, 2009 Leave a comment

As I had indicated earlier-inflation and fiscal deficit remain the biggest threat to Indian economy in the medium term. RBI Governor Mr. Subba Rao has alluded to the same concerns and says that RBI is planning to rollback the monetary expansion as soon as growth returns. This certainly means that RBI might raise interest rates sooner than you and I expect!

Indian governors have never been Keynesian and going back to monetarist roots is all but natural.

It will be interesting to note what Ben Bernanke does in the US. As posted earlier, the great macro trader Soros thinks that stagflation is imminent in the US.

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